Sarah Rees, a conservationist who served on the government’s forest industry taskforce and the forest stewardship council, says it could lead to “a house of cards collapse”. Opal says the M5 shutdown is due to a series of court rulings against its supplier VicForests, the state-owned logging enterprise. In a statement to shareholders on Tuesday, it said its decision to close was a “response to this sudden and unexpected suspension of supply”. It’s a false dichotomy of jobs versus environment, a culture war that the company is stoking because it doesn’t want to take responsibility for something it hasn’t planned for,” says Bronya Lipski, a lawyer who grew up in the Latrobe Valley and now works as policy and advocacy manager at Environment Victoria. Plantation blue gum grown in western Victoria is bought by Nippon Paper Group – the owner of Opal – and exported.

Opal says the court rulings have left the M5 without the wood pulp needed to produce paper. But critics of the company say that does not tell the full picture, which is that the market for copy paper has been in decline. Victoria produces on average around 2.5m cubic metres of hardwood plantation pulplog per annum,” he says. “Most is exported.” Opal said it “has been unable to source viable alternative wood supplies to replace the VicForests shortfall. Opal has been considering alternative wood supplies … but concluded that alternative procurement is not feasible and has decided to discontinue the graphic paper business.” Chris Taylor, a forestry researcher at the Australian National University, says plantation timber “can replace VicForests shortfalls multiple times over”.Mill workers believe Opal “isn’t interested in sourcing timber from anywhere else”, Henry says. “They’re using VicForests as an excuse for something that wasn’t making a profit.” Plantation farmers say the state undercuts plantations by handing VicForests and customers like Opal a free primary resource – 1.8m hectares (4.5m acres) of native forest. A hardwood grower, John Woodley, says plantations have been “competing directly with government agencies for market share”. Reflex commands 80% of Australia’s white copy paper market but consumption has halved in the past decade, with further decline predicted. The digital transformation of workplaces and universities slowed consumption, and Reflex’s use of what is known as “high conservation value” native timber resulted in it losing its Forest Stewardship Council accreditation, prompting thousands of businesses to sign an “ ethical paper pledge” to boycott it.

This versatile office paper can be used for printing and copying but it is also suitable to be used in mail communications such as letters and notices. When carrots are dangled and nothing’s done, people are waiting for the government to end uncertainty before putting trees in the ground,” McEvoy says.Under Victoria’s Forests (Wood Pulp Agreement) Act , 350,000 cubic metres of native hardwood pulplog is guaranteed a year at fixed prices to Opal. The company is obliged to buy at least 85% of that guaranteed allotment until 2030. Out of paper: the last roll of white copy paper produced at the Maryvale mill in December. Photograph: Olivias Poppa The impact on jobs from the potential closure of the mill would not be restricted to Maryvale. According to the Victorian auditor general’s office, downstream wood industries “could not operate financially without [VicForests] pulp log sales”. Opal has known for years that paper demand is declining and that state forests have a range of species facing extinction.”